LAboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems

Forecasting and Prediction of Scorpion Sting Cases on the Basis of Surveillance System

    Professor Schehrazad Selmane
    University of sciences and technology of Algiers (U.S.T.H.B) Faculty of Mathematics
    Monday, December 19, 2016 - 10:30am to 11:30am
    Lamps, N532 Ross
    In this talk we will highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria. We also develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in this province.
    The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0) x (0,1,1)12 seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.
    SARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province's prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures.