LAboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems

Epidemiological survey and statistical analysis onscorpion envenomations : The case of El Bayadh in Algeria

    Schehrazad Selmane
    University of Sciences and Technology Houari Boumediene, Algeria
    Thursday, December 4, 2014 - 12:30pm to 1:30pm
    LAMPS, N532 Ross

    Scorpion envenomation represents a real public health problem in Algeria. A total of 911,907 scorpion stings and 1977 deaths were recorded by health services between 1991 and 2012. We undertook for El Bayadh's province, one of the country's endemic zones for scorpion envenomation, a survey on epidemiological characteristics of these envenomations and a statistical study on the impact of climate variables on scorpion stings. We correlated the number of scorpion stings with several climatic factors. Then we performed the Principal Components Analysis to choose the variables that related to the increase of scorpion stings. The statistical modeling was then performed through Poisson, scaled Poisson, and Negative inomial regression models. The obtained results showed that the scorpion activity in province of El Bayadh is an environmental climatology dependent phenomenon; the temperature and relative humidity are the essential factors; they were used to derive the best predictive model of scorpion sting incidence in the province.